West Pacific/2015/10W/Archive/4
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 4 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 06:00 AM JST FRI JUL 03 2015 ...LINFA STILL HEAVILY SHEARED... SUMMARY OF 06:00 AM JST...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N, 127.4E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: LOW ... ± 25 MI... 40 KM ABOUT 435 MI...700KM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 13 KT...11 MPH...24 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 06:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 15.5, 127.4E, or about 435 miles (700 kilometers) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1002 millibars (hPa; 29.59 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking northwest at 13 knots (11 mph, 24 km/h). Atmospheric conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for slow development as this sytem tracks slowly towards the northwest over the enxt two days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 12:00 pm JST. $$ Forecaster TheAustinMan Discussion TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 06:00 AM JST FRI JUL 03 2015 There is not much new to discuss in regards to Linfa's developments or changes over the last six hours. Linfa has changed little in terms of its conective structure, with the storm characterized by a large, cold mass of convection (with cloud tops of around -80C to -90C) displaced to the southwest of the center, which is hard to discern at this time outside of inference off of the low level cloud bands visible to the east. Cirrus spokes of outflow are visible to the storm's west, which may indiciate that the storm is well ventilated in that direction. Regardless, the 20-30 knots of shear originating from the east and northeast have kept Linfa's strengthening under check. As very little has changed in terms of organization since the last advisory, the pressure has been held steady and winds remain at 35 knots. The models are mostly in agreement that Linfa will track slowly towards the west-northwest over the next few days as the storm rounds about the southwestern fringes of the dominant subtropical ridge over the West Pacific. Intensification during this period should be slow, as the presence of moderate to strong wind shear should be slightly offset by the warm sea surface temperatures and otherwise favorable conditions. Models have come into agreement that Linfa will track near or over northeastern Luzon, which will likely result in Linfa's weakening due to interaction with the mountainous insular terrain. Towards the end of the forecast period, a trough moving over China and Japan is expected to drag Linfa towards the northeast and perhaps near Taiwan. Models suggest that Linfa's track after this point will be heavily influenced by interactions with Typhoon Chan-hom, but this is outside the 120 hour WHFC forecast range. The WHFC track remains generally the same, though the intensity forecast has been slightly revised upward. INIT 02/2100Z 15.5N 127.4E 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.3N 127.0E 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.4N 125.3E 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 16.9N 124.1E 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 17.5N 123.1E 60 KT 70 MPH ... APPROACHING LUZON 72H 05/1800Z 18.6N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH ... OVER LUZON 96H 06/1800Z 19.8N 120.5E 40 KT 45 MPH ... OVER LUZON STRAIT 120H 07/1800Z 21.0N 121.2E 45 KT 50 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN $$ Forecaster TheAustinMan